Horizon scanning for beginners: Part 5 - signal intelligence: turning data into actionable foresight

Horizon scanning, as we've explored in this series, is fundamentally about anticipating the future. But anticipation without action is merely speculation. The real power of horizon scanning lies in translating those possible scenarios for tomorrow into concrete strategies for today. This fifth part covers the critical step of plotting key signals and trends in a structured format, enabling continuous monitoring and informed decision-making.

At its heart, this stage is about organising the chaos of emerging information. We're bombarded daily with news, reports, and trends, all competing for our attention. The trick is to sift through this noise, identify the signals that truly matter, and then track their evolution over time. A structured approach is essential for making sense of it all.

While the attraction of sophisticated software solutions is undeniable, it's crucial to remember that the tools are secondary to the process. A dedicated tool like FIBRES can undoubtedly streamline the workflow, providing a centralised repository and automated tracking capabilities - this is the tool I use and I highly recommend it. However, don't let the lack of a fancy platform become a barrier to entry. Starting with something as simple as Excel sheets or a digital canvas like Miro can be surprisingly effective. The key is to establish a consistent framework for capturing and organising your observations.

Consider the categories you want to use. What are the key themes or domains that are relevant to your organisation? These might include technological advancements, regulatory changes, shifts in consumer behaviour, or emerging geopolitical risks. Within each category, identify the specific signals and trends that warrant closer attention. These could be anything from a breakthrough in artificial intelligence to a new piece of legislation or a growing social movement. Here are two example radars from the FIBRES tool:

Once you've identified these signals, the next step is to track their evolution. This involves regularly monitoring news sources, industry reports, academic research, and social media conversations for any developments. It's also crucial to capture the potential implications of each signal, both positive and negative. What opportunities might it create? What risks might it pose? How might it impact your organisation's strategy, operations, or reputation?

One of the most valuable aspects of horizon scanning is its ability to benefit from collaboration and knowledge sharing. If you want to get inspired, take a look at this video from Thoughtworks.

Thoughtworks' Technology Radar categorises technologies by type and adoption readiness – Adopt, Trial, Assess, Hold – reflecting practical experience, not comprehensiveness. What sets their approach apart is its democratic, internal process. Diverse insights are gathered from across the organisation, promoting open discussion and debate. This not only ensures that a wide range of perspectives are considered but also helps to build a shared understanding of the emerging landscape.

Their Technology Radar serves as a powerful communication tool, enabling teams to align their efforts and make informed decisions about technology adoption. It's a living document, constantly evolving as new technologies emerge and existing ones mature. By making this information accessible to everyone in the organisation, Thoughtworks empowers its employees to become active participants in shaping the future. You can also see their live radar that is publicly available on their website.

But be aware that there are challenges to overcome. Maintaining consistency in data collection and analysis can be difficult, especially when dealing with a large and diverse team. It's important to establish clear guidelines and processes to ensure that everyone is on the same page. Another challenge is the potential for bias. We all have our own preconceived notions and blind spots, which can influence how we interpret information. To mitigate this risk, it's essential to actively seek out diverse perspectives and challenge our own assumptions.

To conclude, as I have mentioned in earlier posts, horizon scanning is not a solitary activity. It requires a collaborative effort, bringing together diverse perspectives and expertise. Secondly, the process is more important than the tools. Don't get bogged down in finding the perfect software solution. Start with what you have and iterate as you go. Thirdly, continuous monitoring is key. The world is constantly changing, so it's essential to regularly review and update your findings.

In the next post, I'll cover what you need to do as the signals and trends become stronger, and the action you need to take to access business impact and develop roadmaps and plans.

Ready to start scanning the horizon?

• We can get you started by facilitating the end to end processes and then maintain and update your radars on an ongoing basis with regular interaction with you and your team

• We can can help you get started by facilitating the end to end processes and then handing responsibilities to you, providing support afterwards where needed

Feel free to get in touch to arrange a no obligation call to discuss your current situation and hear how Purpose and Means can help you navigate through these turbulent times.