Horizon scanning for beginners: Part 7 - senior leadership buy-in: presenting your foresight business case and plan

The culmination of foresight and horizon scanning workshops marks not an end, but rather a critical transition into the practical application of the insights gleaned. These workshops, as previously discussed, serve as important, and needed gatherings for ideas, where diverse perspectives converge to illuminate potential future scenarios. However, the true value of these exercises lies not in the generation of ideas alone, but in their translation into actionable strategies. The immediate aftermath of these workshops is a period of intense analysis and planning, where the raw output is refined into tangible deliverables: a draft business case, a supporting roadmap, and detailed A3 plans.

The business case serves as the foundation of this transition. It articulates the strategic rationale and justification for pursuing the opportunities identified during the foresight process. This involves quantifying the potential benefits, such as increased market share, reduced operational costs, or enhanced resilience to disruptive events. The business case must also address the potential risks associated with these opportunities, outlining mitigation strategies and contingency plans. It's a balanced assessment that seeks to justify the investment of resources in exploring uncertain futures.

The roadmap, in contrast, provides a time dimension to the business case. It outlines the sequence of actions, milestones, and dependencies required to realise the strategic objectives. This involves identifying the critical capabilities that need to be developed, the resources that need to be allocated, and the timelines within which these activities must be completed. The roadmap serves as a navigational tool, guiding the organisation through the complex terrain of the future. Also, it's a very useful communication tool that can be used when interacting with various stakeholders.

A3 plans, my particular template supports Lean thinking, represent a more granular level of detail. These plans focus on specific projects or initiatives that are deemed essential for executing the roadmap. They typically include a problem statement, a proposed solution, a detailed action plan, and a set of key performance indicators (KPIs). A3 plans are designed to be concise, visual, and easily communicated, facilitating alignment and collaboration across different teams and departments. They are also a strong operational element that articles the 'doing' aspect.

The presentation of the business case and roadmap to senior leadership is a critical activity and needs to be thought through and planned well - it can be make or break. This is where the foresight process is subjected to scrutiny, where assumptions are challenged, and where strategic alignment is sought. Senior leaders must assess your justification for change, the strength of the analysis, and the feasibility of the proposed actions. Their approval is not just a formality, but an endorsement that signals the company's commitment to embracing future-oriented thinking.

The advantages of this process are many. By proactively anticipating future trends, companies can gain a competitive advantage, identify new market opportunities, and mitigate potential risks. Foresight enables more informed decision-making, leading to more effective resource allocation and improved strategic outcomes. The process itself supports a culture of innovation, encouraging employees to think critically about the future and to contribute to the development of solutions.

But there are also hidden advantages that are often overlooked. Foresight can enhance organisational resilience, enabling companies to adapt more effectively to unforeseen events. It can improve stakeholder engagement, building trust and collaboration with customers, suppliers, and regulators. It can also strengthen organisational learning, creating a continuous cycle of reflection, adaptation, and improvement.

Despite these advantages, there are also challenges and risks that must be acknowledged. Foresight is not an exact science. The future is of course uncertain, and even the most sophisticated models and analyses can be wrong. There is a risk of overconfidence, of believing that the company has a unique ability to predict the future. There is also a risk of paralysis, of becoming so focused on the future that the present is neglected.

The hidden challenges are even more insidious. Foresight can be perceived as a threat to the status quo, especially by those who are invested in the current way of doing things. There may be resistance from employees who are uncomfortable with ambiguity or who lack the skills to engage in future-oriented thinking. There is also a risk of groupthink, where the views of dominant individuals or groups prevail, stifling dissent and limiting the range of perspectives considered.

To conclude, the transition from foresight workshops to actionable strategies is am important phase that requires meticulous planning, strong analysis, and effective communication. While the advantages of foresight are clear, it is essential to acknowledge the challenges and risks involved. Senior leaders must play a big role in championing the process, supporting a culture of innovation, and ensuring that foresight informs decision-making at all levels of the company. The ultimate success of foresight depends not only on the quality of the analysis, but also on the willingness of the organisation to embrace uncertainty, to adapt to change, and to learn from its mistakes.

In my next and last post of this series, I'll cover what you need to do convince your leadership to approve the investment for you to even start this initial process. These days, you can't just break off from your daily work to create a business case, that in itself needs justification and approval - a small pre-project.

Ready to start scanning the horizon?

• We can get you started by facilitating the end to end processes and then maintain and update your radars on an ongoing basis with regular interaction with you and your team

• We can can help you get started by facilitating the end to end processes and then handing responsibilities to you, providing support afterwards where needed

Feel free to get in touch to arrange a no obligation call to discuss your current situation and hear how Purpose and Means can help you navigate through these turbulent times.